poll

Sunday 1 August 2010. TAP media release
 
"Internal polling of the northern Tasmanian 63 telephone district shows a clear majority of the electorate is less likely to vote for a political party that intends to support Gunns proposed pulp mill with taxpayer funds," said TAP Into A Better Tasmania spokesman, Rod Hutchins.
 

Postal voting in Tasmanian local government elections begins from between 13 to 16 October and closes 10am, Tuesday 27 October.

TAP Into A Better Tasmania (TAP) is a non-party political movement. Voters who have added their names to TAP's Voters Block have pledged not to vote for candidates who support Gunns' proposed pulp mill in the Tamar valley. The Voters Block has over 23 700 registrations and has surpassed the original target of 22 000. The number is growing steadily and the new target is 28 000. 

TAP has been contacting candidates in local council elections to ask the question "Do you support or oppose Gunns' planned pulp mill in the Tamar Valley?". Candidates who oppose the pulp mill and have given permission to publish their names are listed below.

Twenty five anti pulp mill candiates are in the local government elections for positions as councillors, deputy mayor and mayor across five northern councils.

We have made every attempt to ensure that the list is accurate but there may be one or two latecomers. Their names will be posted here as soon as possible. If there are any errors, or you would like to make a suggestion, please email tapcontact@gmail.com. Read more to see the list.

Candidates supported by the Voters Block as at 10.30pm Friday 16 October, 2009

Introduction - Why jobs?

Creation of new jobs is the central pillar in the case for winning the hearts and minds of Tasmanians for Gunns’ proposed pulp mill. Gunns’ CEO John Gay said the “mill would create jobs and long-term job security for a significant part of Tasmania's workforce” [1]. This position is echoed by the Forest Industry Association of Tasmania chairman, CFMEU forestry division, Timber Communities Australia, the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and both Liberal and Labor parties, as well as some northern council mayors.

The promise of thousands of new jobs helped ex-Premier Paul Lennon justify rescuing the ‘critically non compliant’ Gunns pulp mill in 2007 with a special act of Parliament, the Pulp Mill Assessment Act (PMAA). The other main pillar of support for quickly passing the PMAA, the urgency of Gunns’ commercial needs, has now been discredited. However, the creation of new jobs remains as the central justification for the project by Liberal and Labor. Labor is positioning itself for the 2010 March election as the pro-jobs party and the Greens as anti-jobs.

What we are asked to believe

There are several competing stories around the pulp mill proposal that we are asked to believe. We can choose to believe Gunns’ PR man Matt Horan, who says it will create 2000 construction jobs [2], or we can believe Gunns’ secret advice to the George Town Council engineer that only 1250 building workers are needed [3]. We can choose to believe Horan that the pulp mill will create “about 16,000 jobs in the future," [4] or we can believe consultant ITS Global that it will create only 292 direct long term jobs [5].

We can believe Gunns’ stated wishes that underskilled Tasmanians with no experience in pulp mills will get preference over skilled outsiders from interstate or the thousands of overseas experienced pulp workers who have been made redundant in the global downturn. Further, we can believe that the fourth largest kraft chemical pulp mill in the world will happily co-exist with fishing, tourism and nature-based activities, boutique wineries, organic food producers and farming [6].

We are also asked to believe the Liberal and Labor story that Tasmania as a provider of undifferentiated bulk commodities is better than one based on the State’s distinctive and unique attributes that give businesses in tourism, fishing, wineries, organic foods, and others a competitive edge.

The consequences of choosing to believe the wrong story are serious. So what are the job facts and which story stands up?

“Federal Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Tony Burke last week flagged using taxpayer subsidies to make it more attractive to foreign operatives to take control of Gunns’ planned pulp mill and Tasmania's resources” said TAP Into A Better Tasmania spokesman, Bob McMahon.

But a new state-wide EMRS poll shows two in every three Tasmanians don’t want the planned Tamar Valley pulp mill to go ahead because it will result in foreign operatives effectively controlling Tasmanian water, land and forests.

 RALLY and MARCH - DEMOCRACY BETRAYED – TASMANIANS BETRAYED                                             ROYAL PARK LAUNCESTON Saturday May 14^th 2011 at 11.30am.        

“We’ll be flying hundreds of black flags”, said Bob McMahon TAP spokesperson.

“The flags and the choice of black as the colour of the rally is to signify those dark days in March 2007 when the great betrayal of our democracy took place.

“That was when the Pulp Mill Assessment Act, the ‘fast track’ assessment, was rubber stamped through both houses of parliament by Labor and Liberal. The only dissent was from the four Greens in the lower house and a handful of honourable independents in the upper.

“Let’s be absolutely clear as to what happened back in March 2007. The legislation was substantially written by the company which it so obscenely favours – this they have never denied – and the bill was escorted through the corridors, bar, and chambers of Parliament by a squad of lobbyists, lawyers and heavies from Gunns, the CFMEU and the logging industry.

“It was tantamount to a coup d’etat.

“That Labor and Liberal politicians and their fellow travellers in the upper house were the willing patsies of this gross abuse of parliamentary democracy should never be excused or diminished in any way,” continued McMahon.

“It was one of the most shameful episodes, perhaps THE most shameful episode, in out political history. It demonstrated a breathtaking contempt for the institution of parliamentary democracy by the very parliamentarians whose sacred duty it was to uphold.

“The great irony is that it was all for nothing,” said McMahon. “There is no pulp mill. Not a single cent of investment money has been attracted to the project in six and half years. It remains, as it always was, a grand delusion. Yet unprincipled government has wasted vast sums of public money on it, money that should have been allocated to health, education, policing, aged care etc.

“The pulp mill is over. The nightmare of an uncompetitive, world scale resource gobbling industry for an island that is not world scale, has held Tasmania back for six and a half years.

“Let us get on with what we do best in Tasmania, establishing innovative, creative, small to medium business directed at the quality end of the market.

“The pulp mill has already destroyed two premiers. As sure as night follows day it will destroy a third unless she cuts herself free from the mill insanity and embraces and articulates a positive vision for Tasmania,” concluded McMahon.

RALLY SPEAKERS

Dr Frank Nicklason, Royal Hobart Hospital and a Gunns 20.

Peter Cundall, campaigner without peer.

Lucy Landon-Lane, Pulp The Mill.

Kim Booth, Greens.

Bob McMahon, TAP spokesperson.

CONTACT: Bob McMahon 0448 547290 or 63944225

______________________________________________________________________________

3 March 2011 Joint Media Release  TAP Into A Better Tasmania (TAP) and Tasmanian Public and Environmental Health Network (TPEHN)

Community Groups TAP and TPEHN join in condemning the ‘forest principle agreement’ because it is very specifically tied to the delivery of the Gunns' Tamar Valley pulp mill.

As reported in The Australian yesterday, Bill Kelty said ‘green’ groups must strike a deal on the Gunns' Tamar Valley pulp mill or miss out on permanent protection of 565,000 hectares of native forest.

“There you have it. This is what the ‘roundtable’ negotiations have been about all along,” commented Dr Alison Bleaney of TPEHN.

“From the point of view of Gunns and the Labor Party, the forest ‘roundtable’ was about delivering the Long Reach pulp mill. From the ENGO’s side it was about delivering protection to native forest. They were the two glittering prizes up for grabs and to pretend otherwise is misleading,” said TAP spokesperson Bob McMahon.

“In order for both sides to get what they wanted it was important to exclude the community first and foremost. Why? Because it was expected that the community would be opposed to any trade-off of the sort so bluntly expressed by Kelty”, continued McMahon.

“After all, the community was going to have to pay the price for the sort of deal the forest industry negotiators had in mind. The community had to be sidelined and kept in the dark. Thus the secrecy. We were the sacrifice."

“That the blatantly undemocratic, rigged and secret ‘roundtable’ negotiations and the ‘forest principles’ that resulted (including in principle support for plantations and ‘a pulp mill’) received the enthusiastic support of the ALP is no surprise."

“That the Greens have also been enthusiastic supporters of the undemocratic negotiations as constituted, and the ‘forest principles’ that resulted from the illegitimate process, is deeply distressing for the community and incredibly damaging to the Greens themselves,” said McMahon.

“Kelty has made it abundantly clear that the success of the Gunns/ALP pulp mill is dependent on the signing of the ‘forest principles agreement’,” said Dr. Bleaney.

“Therefore, both TAP and TPEHN, demand that The Wilderness Society, Environment Tasmania and Australian Conservation Foundation either refuse to sign the agreement as it exists or insist that the Gunns Tamar Valley pulp mill be specifically excluded from the agreement as a principle."

“We expect many other community groups will join us in making this demand”.

“It is not too late for the Greens to redeem themselves either”, confirmed Bob McMahon. “They will have to stop the doublethink and unequivocally withdraw their support for the ‘forest principles’ as they stand and the illegitimate roundtable process which produced them. It is not good enough for the Greens to say they do not support the Tamar Valley pulp mill while supporting a process designed from the very beginning to deliver that very same pulp mill.

“Dr Bleaney and I want to put this bizarre chapter of Tasmanian history into context. This is a monumental issue of social justice. Should the environment groups sign up to the ‘forest principles’ deal as it currently exists it will be viewed as a great betrayal of current and future generations of Tasmanians, whose social, economic and environmental horizons will be severely diminished and restricted by the demands Gunns mill will place on our basic resources of land and water and of the huge public subsidies the mill will need in order to compete against cheaper producers in developing countries.

Contact:   

Bob McMahon 0448 547290 TAP

Dr Alison Bleaney 0417 302549  TASMANIAN PUBLIC and ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH NETWORK

23 December 2010 Examiner newspaper online poll

Following claims by Gunns that they are making progress towards a 'social licence' for their proposed pulp mill, the northern Tasmanian newspaper 'The Examiner' ran an online opinion poll. 2007 responded to the poll question - "Do you want a pulp mill in Tasmania?" 

Responses
Yes - 394 (20%)
No - 1613 (80%)

Source 'The Examiner' newspaper, 23 December 2010

2 September 2010. The Advocate newspaper online opinion poll

The Advocate newspaper in NW Tasmania ran an online opinion poll which apparently included questions about Gunns' proposed pulp mill. However the questions and the results were not published online. See Advocate

1 August 2010. Voter suppport for party intending to use taxpayer money to suppport the pulp mill

TAP conducted a telephone  survey between Tuesday 20 July and Thursday 29 July 2010.

258 Tasmanian voters chosen at random from the north and north-east 63 telephone district were interviewed by phone and asked a single question relating to voting and Gunns’ proposed Tamar Valley pulp mill.

The question stated, “A federal election has been called. Would you be more or less likely to vote for a party intending to use taxpayers’ money to support Gunns’ proposed pulp mill?” Results:

• More likely    26%
• Less likely     55%
• Unsure          19%

Findings

More than half the residents of the 63 telephone district (55%) say they are less likely to vote for a political party that intends to use taxpayer money to support Gunns’ proposed pulp mill in the Tamar Valley. Just one quarter of the respondents (26%) say they are more likely to vote for such a party. Almost two in ten (19%) were unsure.

If the undecided were either excluded or distributed in the usual manner for polls, some 68% of voters are less likely to vote for a party that intended using taxpayer funds to support Gunns’ proposal.

A random sample size of 258 Tasmanian residents aged 18+ years from the 63 telephone district has an error margin of less than +/- 4.00% based on a 95% confidence intervals. This means that only one in twenty polls has an error larger than 4%.

The result mirrors numerous previous polls and will disappoint proponents and supporters of the mill since it demonstrates a continuing failure to gain a “social licence” for the project.

This result will also interest political parties attempting to shore up support for their candidates. The 63 telephone district covers the marginal seat of Bass, part of Lyons and a corner of Braddon.

Prepared by TAP Into A Better Tasmania   

28 May 2010 SMH Business Day online poll

The Sydney Morning Herald Business Day conducted an online poll about the proposed pulp mill with three options to choose from. More than 1166 participants responded to the question, "With Gunns chairman John Gay quitting, what do you think should happen to the Tasmanian pulp mill plans?"

Results:

•  Gunns should proceed as planned, subject to meeting government standards, 21%;
•  Gunns should modify its plans to win approval from environmental groups, 14%;
•  Gunns should drop its pulp mill plans, 65%.

Source www.businessday.com.au

12 November 2007 Roy Morgan poll

An opinion poll of 552 voters from across Australia was conducted Roy Morgan re the pulp mill. (The exact wording of the questions was not reported). Results:

12 September 2007 Galaxy poll on voter intentions
Investors for the Future of Tasmania commissioned Galaxy to poll attitudes of 1004 voters around Australia towards Gunns’ pulp mill.
The sample included 302 people from New South Wales, 280 from Victoria and Tasmania, 189 from Queensland, 121 South Australia and 112 Western Australia. Results:

• Supported the mill 21%;
• Opposed the mill 41%;
• Undecided 38%.

On a two answer preferred basis; support = 34%, opposed = 66%.

Commentary. Of the 41% who opposed the mill, 64% said the issue would affect their vote. Of voters aged 35 years or older, 46% opposed the pulp mill. More voters opposed the pulp mill than were in favour across all states, capital cities, regional and rural areas.

Source www.news.com.au/mercury/story/0,22884,22404928-921,00.html

8 August 2007 EMRS poll on fast tracking and support for the mill

Investors for the Future of Tasmania commissioned EMRS to survey 500 people from the South, 250 from the North and 250 from North-West of Tasmania. Question 1. - do you agree with the Government's fast-track process? Results:

• Yes 26%;
• No 64%;
• Unsure 10%.
• On a two answer preferred basis; yes = 29%, no = 71%.

Question 2. Are you in favour of the current proposal to build a pulp mill in the Tamar valley? Results:

• Yes 40%;
• No 51%;
• Unsure 9%.
• On a two answer preferred basis; yes = 44%, no = 56%.

Source www.investorsfortas.com

October 2005 West Tamar Council elector poll

West Tamar Council held a voluntary elector poll with the question - are you in favour of the proposed pulp mill? 8700 voters responded. Results:

• Yes 44%;
• No 56%.

Source http://www.electoral.tas.gov.au/pages/LocalGovernment/LG2005/LG2005FirstPref/LG2005_WestTamar.htm
 
 
24 April 2007 TasPoll poll on support for the mill

TasPoll was commissioned by TAP to survey 1 000 Tasmanians in the northern 63 telephone district with the question - are you in favour of the current proposal to build a pulp mill in the Tamar valley? Results: